Better later than never, for MI-08 Democratic challenger Bob Alexander. Although the DCCC focused early on races in the neighboring 7th and 9th Districts, Alexander’s shoestring operation is going great guns in the home stretch.
Two polls have confirmed that the race is basically a dead heat, and Rogers’ own polling data must confirm this, since the MI GOP has mounted two negative attacks on Alexander in the past 10 days. The first volley came in the form of a telephone push poll, the second was a mailer focusing on bogus claims that Alexander wanted to provide national health care to 900 illegal aliens. These are clearly the defensive maneuvers of a worried incumbent.
After a long, tightly-budgeted campaign, contributions are coming in for Alexander, but it’s late in the game. A TV ad is ready to go, and an infusion of cash would let Alexander make media buys to increase his name recognition in a district that the incumbent gerrymandered to be heavily Republican. Alexander can absolutely win this race; it’s just a question of whether the cash comes in time.
I haven’t seen any. You got a link to those polls.
Here you go:
http://www.michiganliberal.com…
http://alexanderforcongress.co…
Being wedged between two competitive races with DCCC attacks overflowing into your district does not benefit anyone, especially Mike Rogers. While Rogers district is experiencing a higher rate of unemployment than the national average it is not as severe here as elsewhere statewide. However, Shiawassee County is the exception. Unemployment in Shiawassee County is 10%. Rogers must carry 65% or more of the vote in Shiawassee, Oakland, and Clinton counties. Ingham County, home to Lansing, will most certainly favor Democrat Bob Alexander. Livingston County, a Republican stronghold, must deliver 70% or more of the vote in Rogers favor. Two Libertain candidates are guaranteed to take votes from Rogers in a race that will be closer than anyone has anticipated. African-Americans are centered in Ingham County and only compose roughly 10% of the electorate. However, union workers are a strong force within the district and recent news from major employers within the district certainly spell trouble. Massive layoffs in auto manufacturing and possible layoffs at Pepsico should indeed have Rogers worried. Rogers also lost the endorsement of the Lansing State Journal which called him too conservative and in lock step with the failed Bush policies, a statement supported by the far conservative Livingston Daily, which endorsed Rogers, but not with glowing reviews. Even though Alexander has not raised a sizeable campaign war chest he has raised more within the district than Rogers. Rogers has also been heavily dependent on PAC money, a sign of a weakened incumbent. Obama coattails in Ingham and Oakland counties should take Alexander over the finish line in a surprise upset of the night.